Dutch Elections: Key Players and Main Issues in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to potentially replace the most rightwing government in recent memory with a more centrist and pragmatic coalition during early general elections scheduled for 29 October.
What's Happening and Why It Matters
Snap general elections were called after the collapse of the previous administration in the summer, when rightwing politician Geert Wilders pulled his PVV from an already unstable and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after extended negotiations established a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too toxic for the premier position, which ultimately went to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has lived under police protection for two decades, began criticizing from the sidelines.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on June 3 after his allies declined to implement a radical comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, turning back all refugee applicants, closing most refugee hostels and sending home all Syrian refugees.
While backing of the PVV has decreased, polls indicate the far-right, anti-Islam party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. But, main Dutch political formations have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.
At least 16 parties are forecast to gain representation, but no single party is expected to win more than approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the future Netherlands administration, generally an influential player on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after alliance talks that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
There are 150 representatives in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to form a majority. No single party typically achieves this, and the Holland has been governed by coalitions for over 100 years.
Parliament is elected quadrennially – sooner when governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an approved list of contenders in a country-wide district: any party that wins less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to much of Europe, Dutch politics have been marked in recent decades by a significant drop in backing of the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from more than 80% in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
Domestically, this trend has been accompanied by a spectacular proliferation of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a party for youth, a party for animals, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, projected to lose up to eight of the thirty-seven mandates it won in 2023. It advocates, among other policies, a total moratorium on asylum, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the military to fight "urban violence", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and once more in the early 2000s, but slumped to only five mandates in the last election.
Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who joined political life only four years ago, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is projected to win a similar number, according to survey data.
Headed by the experienced ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The center-left D66 is projected to gain seats – capturing up to 17, from its present nine – under its straight-talking youthful head, with a platform focused on housing (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for claimants.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the political group of the ex-premier (now NATO leader), is predicted to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its leader, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decline. It is promising corporate tax reductions and less welfare.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the previously successful, now controversy-plagued Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an departure of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the unsuccessful previous government, the farmer and centrist parties, are expected to decline, with the NSC not even guaranteed legislative seats.
The top issues so far have been immigration, with several – occasionally aggressive – demonstrations against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the country is lacking four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Given the highly fragmented state of Netherlands political landscape, what alliances are feasible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government).
Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been identified, a formateur, typically the head of the biggest prospective member, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Various combinations look plausible, typically including a mix of parties from moderate left and center right. The most likely, according to political analysts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and one or more minor groups possibly incorporating JA21.
