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In the course of the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán was notable as the exclusive head of an EU nation to endorse Donald Trump. This support was hardly surprising, given the Hungarian leader's embrace of contentious ideas like great replacement ideology and his suppression of media freedom. Commentators have noted that Mr Orbán more or less laid the groundwork for the Maga movement, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon once praising Orbán as Trump's forerunner.

Political Favors Ahead of Hungary's Polls

Last week, amid crucial Hungarian elections just approaching in six months, the US president reciprocated with support. While Orbán pursues a fifth straight win presiding over a nation he describes as an non-liberal system, his political group is behind in surveys. A visit to the US capital yielded not just a few signed Maga baseball caps; it obtained considerably more valuable pre-election gifts.

Special Treatment and Financial Shields

Although previously lecturing European nations on the necessity to stop all fuel purchases from the Russian Federation, and warning of penalties against nations continuing to import Russian energy, Donald Trump approved to provide a unique waiver for the Hungarian government – the biggest user in the EU of Russian crude. As Orbán stated, the American leadership also pledged to provide a fiscal buffer to Budapest should it runs into any later issues, given that the European Union continues to withhold substantial EU funds to Hungary because of rule-of-law breaches.

The details of this arrangement remain unclear. But the US president illustrated his willingness to assist ideological allies when the US extended a $20 billion in emergency funds to the Argentine leader, Argentina's president. While Mr Orbán did not secure a Trump trip to Budapest to the Hungarian capital, the Washington talks nonetheless was a profitable day’s work.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

Among European leaders, the US president's move will have highlighted the strategic importance of the forthcoming polls, ahead of which the centrist challenger, the rival candidate, holds a clear edge in the polls. European leaders have learned not to look for reliable policies from the Trump administration, and are familiar with the US president’s moves to diminish the European Union. But Mr Orbán’s exemption – secured through an deal to acquire US gas and nuclear energy – flagrantly undermines EU aspirations to eliminate Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.

• Since 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian crude, Hungary and Slovakia, have contributed well over £10bn to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Meanwhile, the Hungarian government has repeatedly used the blocking vote to impede moves in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As Europe strives to create a coordinated approach for supporting Kyiv, and bolstering its position in any upcoming peace talks, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the international forums is still a key barrier.

Challenger's Position

Mr Magyar has avoided vowing a significant change on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while emphasizing the importance for the country to start acting as a positive member state. After years of persistent provocations, the European Union can only wait and hope. Orbán's disregard to core EU ideals, including the upholding of minority rights and the autonomy of civic groups, has persisted as a source of shame for the European Union. His persistent opposition regarding Ukraine risks undermining its security prospects.